Consumer price inflation in the US rose in February for, which was in line with forecasts, after the fall of percent in January. Basic consumer prices rose. Existing homes rose in February, while the index of house prices rose in January. New family homes in the US rose in February, despite the harsh winter. During the week it was released preliminary index of activity in the manufacturing sector, which recorded a growth in March Durable Goods Orders fell in February.
Inventories of crude oil in the US rose in February. On Friday posted growth of consumer confidence. US GDP grew in the fourth quarter at a rate of 2.2 percent, after growth of 2.2 percent also in the previous quarter, while analysts predicted growth of 2.4%. Janet Yellen reiterated that an increase in interest rates may come later this year, adding that he did not need an increase in core inflation before the central bank to decide to raise rates. She stressed that the increase in interest rates will be gradually, because the Fed will continue to be vigilant in order to avoid sudden tightening of monetary policy.
Consumer confidence in the euro zone rose in February. Production expanded in March Preliminary index of the service sector rose. Composite index has increased. Private sector credit grew. Production in Germany improved in March. Index service sector has grown. Combination of manufacturing and service sectors, fell in February. German business confidence improved in March. Index current estimate increased in March, which was in line with expectations. The index of business expectations improved during this month. Consumer I sentiment rose in February. Import price index rose in the last quarter. Production sector in France rose in March but is still in contraction territory. Preliminary index of the service sector fell which was in line with expectations. The composite index fell in March, French GDP grew in the last quarter by 0.1 percent after growth of 0.1 percent in the previous quarter, which was in line with forecasts.
During this week announced a series of economic data from the United Kingdom. Inflation retail prices fell in the last quarter, which was in line with the expectations of economists. House price index fell in February. Consumer price inflation was 0.0 percent in February after growth of 0.3 percent, while economists predicted 0.1 percent. The number of approved mortgages jumped in February.eta rose in February by 0.7 percent, and is forecast growth of 0.4 percent, while core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, rose 0.7 percent in February, after falling from 0.3 percent in January.
Japan’s trade deficit fell to 424.6 billion yen in February, or 47.3 percent. Exports increased by 2.4 percent to 5.94 trillion yen in the last month, driven by growth in deliveries of cars, electronic parts and machinery, while imports decreased by 3.6 percent to 6.36 trillion yen due to low oil prices. On Wednesday posted a drop price index of corporate services in February to 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent the previous month, which was in line with forecasts of analysts. Japan’s unemployment rate fell in February to 3.5 percent from 3.6 percent in the previous month. Domestic consumption in Japan rose in February. Retail sales recorded a decline in February.
On Thursday, Saudi Arabia with allies launched air strikes on rebel positions in Yemen, and on Friday, along with Egypt announced the possible launch of a ground attack, which prevented the progress of the rebels. Oil prices jumped 7%
This week will be published data in the United States. Among the most important data will be consumer confidence, employment outside the agricultural sector, the index of production, unemployment, trade balance and unemployment. In Canada will be published data on GDP and trade balance. In the euro area the most important information is the consumer price index at the level of the euro zone and the German Consumer Price Index. The UK will be published data in the manufacturing sector, construction and the current account. It will be published index of Chinese industry streamed, the number of building permits and trade balance in Australia, New Zealand The data will be published on business confidence and trade balance,
ADP (Feb)
Previous value: 213K
Expected value: 220K
ADP report on employment outside agriculture is a monthly report prepared by ADP and it measures employment on a sample of 500000 US companies. This report shows the change in employment during the previous month among American companies in sectors that do not include the agricultural sector as well as public and published two days before the NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) report. In the context of this report is not covered by the agricultural sector due to seasonal employment, which may reduce the accuracy of the data. As this type of report that is the first to announce an important role to reflect the situation in the US labor market and are often used in forecasting NFP.
Trader can not rely only on technical analysis. Much better to go if I was looking at. You will certainly ask why. The answer is because the news will not be able to count on the relation risk and profits, where to ask SL and TP etc. When trading on the news, one will be safe in the right, but when and as long as no one knows. Last year “great” economists have said that the USD should strengthen the Euro when it was still around then the Euro is still 6 month went up when he began to fall. And that still does not tell you that during this time of countless good news came out of USD and not to strengthen.
ADP is the largest private agency for processing data on wages in the US, their information is highly respected among traders. This data is published monthly, about two days after the end of the month.
On Wednesday will be published publishes information on new employees in the last month outside the agricultural and government sectors. Previous value was 212.000, and the prediction for this time 231.000.
How do I trade?
If ADP is greater than 238 000 we can sell EUR/ USD GBP/USD,AUD/USD, GOLD, OIL AND SILVER AND BUY USD / JPY, USD / CHF, USD / CAD.
If the ADP less than 208,000 then we buy EUR / USD, GBP / USD, AUD / USD, GOLD, OIL AND SILVER AND SELL USD / CAD, USD / JPY, USD / CHF.
The attached can be seen that the largest direct impact data ADP employment change outside of agriculture in the United States has the price of crude oil. And while the correlation to the price of gold and the currency pair EUR / USD it is negative while crude oil is positive. After the last publication of the currency pair EUR / USD fell 0.72%.It can see on the image that currency pair EUR/USD dropped 80 pips from 1.11400 to 1.10600. It is 80 pips or 0.72%.
The price of gold has fallen 0.75% or 90 pips from $1207 an ounce to $1198 an ounce.
The price of crude oil jumped 4.42% from $49.72 per barrel to $51.92 or 220 pips.
Fundamental News Conclusion
It is necessary to understand that particular aspect of the economy figures reveal. There are several aspects of the economy that are measured GDP growth, inflation, employment (Non-Farm Payrolls), interest rates, consumer confidence and spending If you follow the data for a specified time, you will become familiar with each economic indicator, as well as to that part of the economy. There are many indicators which are published daily. It would be impossible to breed them all and it would be a waste of time. Some move markets and others do not – concentrate on those who do. However, economic indicators are not static over the years. Some of them will gain more importance, while others have become less important. Be informed. Data itself may not be as significant as the difference between market expectations and actual results. As mentioned earlier, it is important to know the expectations of the market. Expectations are then built into the price of the instrument. What is not built an unexpected figure or event. This is sometimes felt not by the announcement, but also by the text that goes with the announcement. For example, is expected to increase rates by 0.25% and it may not change anything on the market, but the text after the release, there will be further changes, for example, may in fact to run the price. It is not each announcement cause movement in the market. In each new economic announcement or indicator, which is released to the public, there is a revision of previously published data. Sometimes it can be ambiguous. For example, if durable goods recorded a growth of 0.4% in the current month, and the market is expected to fall, the unexpected rise could be the result of revision of previous months. Compare revisions to older data because in this case, the figure of the previous month of durable goods may have originally reported as a rise of 0.4%, but now, with the new data, is revised lower to express only a growth of 0.1 % Therefore, the unexpected rise in the current month is likely the result of audit data from previous month. Assets traded represent the ratio of one currency against another, and knowledge of one side of the game may not be enough. One currency may go down, and the other even more, so that effect may be the opposite of what you expected.
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